Now might be the time to evacuate some areas...
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Monday, October 29, 2012
000 WTNT43 KNHC 291443 TCDAT3 HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 SANDY IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WITH BOTH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND VARIOUS MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATING A 20 N MI DIAMETER EYE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 94 KT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...AND SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF 80-83 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT MORE THAN 90 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A LITTLE...TO ABOUT 943 MB. BASED ON THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT. RECONNAISSANCE CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR ABOUT 330/16 KT. THE LATEST RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN FALLING ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND SO HAVE THE LATEST 12Z NHC FORECAST MODELS. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY PREVIOUS TRACK OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. SANDY IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE AXIS OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING...AT WHICH TIME A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. AFTER MOVING INLAND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. BY 48 HOURS...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCN. SANDY IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A NARROW RIDGE OF WARM SSTS AROUND 27C...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF STREAM. THIS EXTRA LOW-LEVEL HEAT INPUT HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE. HOWEVER...SANDY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING A HALT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL INTENSITY OR THE SIZE OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD THAT IS NOW MORE THAN 1000 N MI IN DIAMETER. AT THE MOMENT... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE COULD SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BEFORE LANDFALL. SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT WELL-DEFINED WARM AND COLD FRONTS LIE VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY...AND THE COMBINATION OF COLDER OCEAN WATER AND NEARBY FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE... AND FLOODING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL. INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE CENTER OR THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE STRONG WINDS COVER AN AREA SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE NEAR THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 37.5N 71.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 39.0N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/1200Z 39.9N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0000Z 40.4N 77.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1200Z 41.5N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1200Z 44.5N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1200Z 45.9N 72.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1200Z 47.5N 68.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER STEWART
For more coverage and commentary on Hurricane Sandy VISIT:
*****EVACUATIONS IN PROGRESS*****
794 NOUS41 KPHI 281841 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-067>071-291200- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ..AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION. THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS FLOODING. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SOME IMPORTANT NOTES... 1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO. 2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE OUT THE '62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO IT AGAIN. 3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE. 4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS ZERO FATALITIES. 5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!
Sunday, October 28, 2012
The Art Of Deception
This is no superstorm at all and the hype is really annoying to this storm chaser who understands and has studied weather and climate. However, it is strong enough to take some precautions especially along the coastal regions and those areas historically prone to flooding. Other than that just prepare for a lot of rain, strong gale and storm force winds and flooding.
The consumer falls for this and rushes out buying goods which might put an ever so slight boost to the regional economy for a few days. But to cry wolf as if this is some MAJOR SUPERSTORM is utterly ridiculous.
There is one legitimate concern for an EARLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT especially in higher elevations of the Appalachians that this storm will impact. For that you would do well to keep up with the forecast as inland flooding could be very devastating in some localized areas should a large amount of snowfall occur followed by a rapid meltoff and heavy rain even.
It is somewhat troubling (but I'm getting used to hearing it) when our government and media try to condition the general public into believing all their transmissions on this event. It's almost as if they are doing this on purpose to make people believe things when they actually are not so.
On the other hand the things which are dreadful and concerning no one gives attention to. This is very typical of the art of deception:
Skip the media hype and go directly to The National Weather Service data. The media and their meteorologists and alleged "specialists" are the typical media vultures. They are paid shills to elevate this widespread storm to an intensity that is beyond necessary:
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Hurricane? Tropical Storm? Noreaster?
Don't believe the hype on this alleged hurricane which is now transitioning to extratropical and rather strong mid-latitude cyclone that is not even a "noreaster" but just a strong persistent east coast storm. Very simple:
Expect strong winds along the coastal regions and the usual flood prone areas should take caution but other than that it's the usual rain, wind, and flooding potential and the coverage of evacuations and other concerns is getting old.
But if you want to get all worked up about it keep reading the news headlines of the usual fear mongers telling you all hell is about to break loose on Long Island, etc.