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Tuesday, March 5, 2013

WX UNIT UPDATE 03/05/2013 1200Z

DISCUSSION FOR SRN WI NRN IL AND VCNTY:

FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

UPDATE/REVISIONS:

HAVE ADJUSTED MY SNOW ACCUMS DUE TO A BACKDOOR PUSH OF DRY COLD AIR ACRS NERN WI UNDERCUTTING THE PCPN AS IT DRIFTS NORTH.  DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS NOTED FROM MANY REPORTING STATIONS ACRS NE HALF OF WI AND CIGS AT MSN AT OVC055 AND MKE OVC038 RIGHT NOW NOT DROPPING MUCH.  THINKING HVST SNOW ACCUMS WILL CERTAINL REMAIN S AND W OF EAU TO DLL TO UNU TO MKE LN WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF ACCUM LIKELY.  LESS AMTS TO THE N AND E OF THIS LINE BUT WILL WATCH DODGE, WASHINGTON, OZAUKEE, FOND DU LAC, AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES, PERHAPS A PORTION OF GREEN LAKE FOR THE USUAL PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED BY LAKE EFFECT FOR A BRIEF TIME LTR THIS AFTN.

ARX CWA MAY END UP WITH A BIT HIGHER AMTS RIGHT ALG THE MISS RVR BECAUSE OF THE PREVIOUS PERSISTENT SNOW BAND IN THAT REGION. 

SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY EVE TODAY AND A PEEK AT THE AFTN SUN PRIOR TO SUNSET IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE LATER ON IN SOME AREAS.

COLUMBIA, SAUK, ADAMS, GREEN LAKE AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY GET AROUND 3 TO 5 INCH TOTALS. 

MORE UNCERTAINTY:  
HAVE CONSIDERED BROAD BRUSHING THIS EVENT WITH SNOW S OF LINE FROM EAU TO STE TO OSH TO SBM WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 8 INCH POSSIBLE SNOWFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALNG AND S OF A LN FROM EAU TO BCK TO DLL TO UNU TO MKE POSSIBLE.  IT'S HARD TO SAY.  BUT I'M NOT THE ONE WHO HAS TO MAKE THE FINAL CUT FORECASTS SO I'M GOING TO DO WHAT I DO BEST---MONITORING. ;-) 

THIS REALLY LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO POUND RFD OVER TO ORD MDW AND THE ENTIRE CHICAGO METRO AREA EASTWARD TOWARD SBN AND TOL.

WATCH THE RADAR FOR YOUR BEST GUESS SCENARIO:
Current Regional Radar (REFRESH FOR UPDATE)...




STORM CHASER CASPER WX UNIT

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