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Friday, June 7, 2019

SWODY1 OVERVIEW 1126 AM CDT FRI JUN 07 2019



 SPC AC 071626

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2019

   Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
   PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL AND WEST CENTRAL GA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms should produce severe hail and winds over a portion of
   the northern Plains this afternoon into evening, while storms this
   afternoon could produce a few damaging gusts across parts of Alabama
   and Georgia.

   ...Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight...
   A pronounced mid-upper trough over the interior Pacific Northwest
   and northern Rockies will move slowly eastward toward the northern
   High Plains through early Saturday.  An associated surface cold
   front will likewise move slowly east-southeastward across WY,
   eastern MT, and western ND, though progress of the front will be
   slowed some today by cyclogenesis in the lee of the Wind River Range
   in WY.  Low-level moisture is modest across the northern High Plains
   this morning, with some increase possible across the Dakotas through
   weak advection and local evapotranspiration.  However, the primary
   driver of buoyancy this afternoon will be surface heating/deep
   mixing near the lee cyclone/trough and along the cold front closer
   to the Big Horn Mountains.

   High-based thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid
   afternoon across northwest and north central WY as ascent downstream
   from an embedded speed max over the northern Great Basin interacts
   with the deepening boundary layer and at least weak surface-based
   buoyancy.  Deep-layer vertical shear will favor supercells
   initially, with the potential to produce large hail and damaging
   winds.  Eventual upscale growth into organized/bowing clusters is
   probable as convection spreads northeastward this evening along the
   front into the Dakotas through early tonight.  Weakening buoyancy
   and increasing convective inhibition after about 05z should result
   in a diminishing threat of severe storms. 

   ...Southeast states this afternoon/evening...
   A midlevel low and weak surface reflection over AR as of late
   morning will only drift eastward through tonight.  Surface heating
   within a very moist low-level air mass is contributing to moderate
   buoyancy in a corridor from southeast LA into AL/GA, in advance of
   ongoing/loosely organized storm clusters.  Continued destabilization
   in conjunction with modest (roughly 30 kt) low-midlevel
   southwesterly flow will support a threat for expansion of the
   ongoing convection as a few multicell clusters capable of producing
   a few marginally severe outflow gusts with resultant wind damage.  

   Along the northeast edge of the richer moisture and more unstable
   warm sector, there will be a zone of somewhat enhanced low-level
   shear/hodograph curvature across SC this afternoon.  Here, weak
   supercell structures will be possible with an attendant threat for a
   brief tornado.  However, the extent of the threat will be limited by
   rather modest low-level flow/SRH (effective SRH generally 150 m2/s2
   or less) and deep-layer shear (effective bulk shear of 30 kt or
   less), in an environment with poor midlevel lapse rates.

   ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 06/07/2019

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