Friday, May 31, 2019

MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES FOR WISCONSIN TODAY

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ARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 530 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2019

 
362 
FXUS63 KARX 311030 
AFDARX 
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 
530 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2019 
 
SHORT TERM 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT) 
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2019 
 
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CREEP EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL 
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SOON DEPART INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY AS A FLATTENING UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MID- 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IS ONGOING OUT AHEAD OF 
THIS RIDGING WITH H8 TEMPS OVER LA CROSSE CLIMBING FROM AROUND 13C 
THURSDAY EVENING TO 16C BY DAYBREAK. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE 
SITS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING 
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.   
 
GOING TO BE A TOASTY END TO MAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. DESPITE THE 
UPPER RIDGING BEING DAMPENED AS IT BUILDS OVERHEAD, 850MB TEMPS WILL 
CLIMB FURTHER TO AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON WITH 925MB TEMPS FLIRTING 
WITH 25C (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). DEEP 
UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP THIS AFTERNOON (SOME GUSTS OF 
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE) AS THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN ADVANCES INTO 
NORTHERN WI. THIS WILL PROVIDE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO EASILY 
TAP INTO THAT SIGNIFICANT WARMTH, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 
MIXING ALL THE WAY UP TO ALMOST 600 MB. LIKELY VERY LITTLE CLOUD 
COVER THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON, BUT DO ANTICIPATE SOME 
LINGERING SMOKE ALOFT AS PER LATEST HRRR AND RAP VERTICALLY 
INTEGRATED SMOKE PRODUCTS...PROBABLY NOT AS THICK AS IT WAS ON 
THURSDAY. ALL THIS POINTS TO A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR EFFICIENT DAYTIME 
HEATING, BUT RAW GUIDANCE IS JUST NOT CAPTURING THE MAGNITUDE VERY 
WELL. HAVE THEREFORE LEANED TOWARDS BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE WHICH 
HAS MANY LOCALES FLIRTING WITH 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. 
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS 
UNSTABLE AIRMASS, WITH THE POTENTIAL STILL THERE FOR SOME STRONG TO 
SEVERE STORMS IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE WITH 
THE REGION BLANKETED BY PWATS NEAR 1.2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS 
HOVERING AROUND 60 DEGREES, THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER 
DRY INVERTED-V PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS. RAP PAINTS AROUND 1000- 
2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN 
TERMS OF FORCING, A CORRIDOR OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD 
WITH TIME INTO TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES, PROVIDING THE MAIN IMPETUS 
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 
KNOTS WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE 
FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH, SO OUR FAR NORTH WILL SEE THE GREATEST 
CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. IN TERMS OF TIMING, CAPPING 
LOOKS TO ERODE IN THE 2-4PM WINDOW, BUT STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO 
BE DELAYED A LITTLE LONGER UNTIL THE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. 
CAMS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT 
ENTERS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN 5-7PM, WITH STORM 
INTENSITY DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET AS THE LINE PROGRESSES 
SOUTHEAST. LATEST HREF DOES SHOW SOME WEAK UPDRAFT HELICITY IN THE 
75-150 M2/S2 RANGE ACROSS THE CHIMNEY COUNTIES, SO THAT WILL BE THE 
AREA TO WATCH FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. GIVEN 
THE INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE, GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN 
THREAT. LOWER THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, AS LOW LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY AND 
TOO WARM. ONE OTHER AREA TO NOTE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY 
EVENING WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST WI INTO NORTHEAST IA WHERE A RICHER 
POOL OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP, PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME PULSE 
POP-UP STORMS DOWN THAT WAY. BUT THOSE ARE NOT LIKELY TO POSE A 
SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR. 
 
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT PROGRESSES 
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOW 50S NORTH 
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOW 60S IN THE FAR SOUTH. 
 
LONG TERM 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) 
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2019 
 
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PROGRESSED SOUTH OF I-90 BY 
SATURDAY MORNING. AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL 
SUPPORT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH THE 
BEST FORCING THEN MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH 
PRESSURE ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE 
STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR IN PLACE. A COMPARATIVELY 
MUCH COOLER DAY IN STORE WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. 
 
LOOKS LIKE A STRETCH OF RATHER QUIET, DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE 
(IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOL) TEMPERATURES AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY 
BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT 
WEEK. NEXT BEST SHOT FOR RAIN WILL COME HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS 
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND EDGES INTO 
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PLENTY OF MODEL TIMING VARIANCE BEING THIS 
FAR OUT, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD BE 
THE MOST FAVORED TIMEFRAME FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA. 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO QUIETER WEATHER. 
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH 
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. 
 
 
 
AVIATION 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) 
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2019 
 
PATCHY MORNING FOG IN SOME RIVER VALLEYS WILL GIVE WAY VFR 
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP 
TO AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING. WINDS 
WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH CIRRUS AND SMOKE IN THE 
UPPER ATMOSPHERE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. A 
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. 
ALTHOUGH A SHOWER/STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING, 
HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF KLSE/KRST INTO 
TONIGHT. DID INCLUDE VCSH LATE TONIGHT AT KRST AND LEFT KLSE DRY, 
BUT SOME ADJUSTMENTS ARE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME MORE 
CLEAR TODAY. 
 
 
 
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES 
 
WI...NONE. 
MN...NONE. 
IA...NONE.
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Wednesday, May 29, 2019

MONITORING DALLAS/FT. WORTH AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER

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Tuesday, May 28, 2019

LIVE SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE AND DISCUSSION: KS, OK, MO, NE, IA, IL

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CHANGES TO BROADCASTING SEVERE WEATHER EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY

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Monday, May 27, 2019

KILLER TORNADO hits El Reno, Oklahoma: There was no SPANISH LANGUAGE TORNADO WARNING for a Hispanic Community

HISPANICS BEWARE!

Come to America and get killed by tornadoes

 ¡Hispanos ten cuidado!

 Ven a América y muere de tornados.

 Why doesn't NOAA have a SPANISH WEATHER RADIO BROADCAST?

******EVERYTHING IS STILL UNCONFIRMED******

*****HISPANIC COMMUNITY DIDN'T KNOW STORM WAS COMING DUE TO LANGUAGE BARRIER*****

*****DID HISPANICS GET HURT AND DIE BECAUSE NO ONE COULD GIVE THEM WARNING IN THEIR LANGUAGE?******


OFFICIALS AT EL RENO, OKLAHOMA:

EVERYTHING IS STILL UNCERTAIN

Preliminary Tornado Estimate:

EF2

Was this an example of NEGLECT TO THE HISPANIC COMMUNITY IN OKLAHOMA?

So far officials in El Reno, Oklahoma are praising first responders and are praising their community as a group of "people of faith."  From what they've told us it sounds like 2 people were killed and possibly over 20 hospitalized with people in critical condition in surgery.  Also we are being told that the deaths happened in the mobile home park and those injured were also from the mobile home park.

From what I saw via KWTV9 it looks like about 8 mobile homes were completely destroyed to rubble and they say that are dealing with a language barrier due to this Hispanic community who lives in the mobile home park:

At the same time KWTV9's on the air meteorologists are praising themselves how they are the best storm team in the nation along with their aggressive team of storm chasers in their field providing early warning to their viewing audience.  Here's the problem:

If this was a Hispanic community that doesn't read speak or understand English they would not have heeded the warning due to their language barrier.  So guess what?  Hispanics who don't speak English are not safe since they cannot understand the tornado warning at all and keep track of what's going on with weather due to their language barrier with English.  So what needs to be done?  They call in a translator after people get killed and hurt and no one can warn these people in English because they do not understand English.

So who's fault is this?

I have other questions the media should be asking about this including but not limited to:
  • Are these Hispanic people migrant workers?
  • Who gets the word out to them about severe weather in Spanish?
  • Will KWTV9 start providing weather reports in Spanish too to save lives and property?
  • Does Oklahoma need a Spanish speaking weather broadcast for Hispanics?
  • Will we find out these are illegal aliens and El Reno is a city of refuge for illegals?
  • KWTV9 is telling us that these storm chasers put their lives on the line for us.  Who's us?  Not Hispanic people that's for sure.
  • So what will be done about these Hispanics next time.  Will there be a Spanish speaking weather broadcast for them somewhere?  
No doubt there will be more developments on this story...stay tuned.



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Friday, May 24, 2019

WX UNIT MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER IN IA, WI, IL, and CNTRL PLAINS STATE

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SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND ADJOINING AREAS

JOIN ME AS I ANALYZE TODAY'S WEATHER DATA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY INCLUDE TORNADOES FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, ILLINOIS AND PERHAPS EASTERN IOWA:

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Thursday, May 23, 2019

MONITORING FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER & TORNADOES

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STRONG TORNADOES HIT CENTRAL USA STATES: JEFFERSON CITY, MISSOURI HIT HARD

******TORNADO HITS JEFFERSON, MISSOURI******

*****LIVE COVERAGE, LINKS, ADDITIONAL INFORMATION*****

https://www.abc17news.com/news/live-blog-jefferson-city-officials-plan-door-to-door-search/1080224142

 MORE SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO OHIO VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA, NEW YORK AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
...developing...
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Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Evacuation Warning/Webbers Falls/Dam Failure.

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LIVE: MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES

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SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION & SYNOPSIS

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Tuesday, May 21, 2019

MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES: MAJOR CONCERN: FLOODING

******FLOODING*****

*****MAJOR THREAT*****

*****SCATTERED TORNADOES STILL POSSIBLE*****


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Monday, May 20, 2019

Storm Prediction Center has HIGH RISK for SEVERE WEATHER in SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY

******HIGH RISK******

*****SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*****

*****LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOES*****

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Saturday, May 18, 2019

WXUNIT STORM BROADCAST & DISCUSSION

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Thursday, May 9, 2019

TORNADO ALLEY SHIFTS AS WEATHER PATTERNS ARE SHIFTING

******WEATHER CONCERNS RISING*****


*****UNUSUAL SEVERE WEATHER OSCILLATIONS AND PATTERNS SHIFTING******

 UNSEASONABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAUSING CONCERNS....

 TORNADO ALLEY SHIFT...

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